Throwing numbers around: $500 million

How big is the real hole in the state budget, and the problem state leaders really have to solve? Senator Williams is right that the hole is less than the $1 billion drop in revenue, but I think it's still pretty large.

Here are the very round numbers I'm thinking about:

• $1 billion missing from revenue assumed in 2008.
• +$200 million added in new costs from health benefits and other troubles.
• -$400 million from the stimulus fiscal stabilization.
• -$300 million in revenue and savings that will repeat from the 2009 legislature's work.
• $500 million as the real hole that requires further action.
  

I had to add some assumptions there. Kentucky will receive $650 million in stabilization money for two years, and that's spending more than half of it in the first of those years. The state plugged a $456 million hole in this year's budget, and that's assuming that about two thirds of those efforts will work again. And the $200 million in new costs rounds off a Page One report that they've sourced to Senator Williams' staff.

Taking $500 million out of general fund spending, if that's what's ahead, will involve serious losses in services to current Kentuckians and investment in future strength.

$651 million over two years

The federal fiscal stabilization fund will bring more than $651 million to Kentucky, with more than 80% of it required to go to elementary, secondary, and postsecondary education.

When Senator Williams says that the $996 state shortfall for the coming fiscal year can easily be managed, I can't tell if his plan is to spend the full $651 million as part of the solution.

Still, I'm worried. The $651 million is a two-year amount. It's what Kentucky gets for FY 2010 and FY 2011. If we do spend it all starting this July 1, we'll hit next July 1 with no cushion at all.

I'll be listening and reading for clarification, and I'll share when I get a clearer sense of what's being considered.

What's this blog about, anyway? (May edition)

Here's a round-up of the main issues that got Prichard Blog attention this month.

Transition accountability
While Kentucky develops new standards and tests, students will continue to be assessed in reading, mathematics, science, social studies and on-demand writing, and a voluntary transition index partnership will report on school, district, and state progress toward proficiency.

New state standards
Senate Bill 1 commits Kentucky to higher, clearer academic content standards aligned with college readiness expectations. We'll do that in collaboration with other states on a tight schedule, with major postsecondary involvement. Meanwhile, postsecondary is preparing to consider even more changes to its ACT readiness requirements.

New accountability for arts, practical living and writingFor those subjects, SB 1 will replace tests with state standards, with districts checking each year and the state checking every other year that each school's programs measure up. The methods and standards used in a pilot version of the review were impressive, and should be the model for planned work on the statewide process for future use. All three subjects will continue to be required parts of P-12 education.

The educational attainment pipeline
Good news: High school diplomas are up, both in recent state data and in federal survey results, and so are college applications.

Not so good news: Students who repeat grade nine rarely graduate. Minority students are especially likely to drop out, and the drop out counts miss thousands of students who simply slip. Completion of associates's degrees declined from 2006 to 2007, and bachelor's completion showed only a tiny step up.

Some things I simply didn't know: nearly 4,000 young adults with disabilities, aged 18 to 21, are served by Kentucky P-12 programs with federal IDEA resources, and students who transfer from community colleges to universities graduate more often than those who start out in bachelor's programs.

Loans to math, science, and special education teachers
The Best in Class program promised to forgive their loans, but is not delivering, and the issue is getting Kentucky a grim kind of national attention. Check out the full sequence of posts on this issue, including the sad but important comments from many participating teachers.

Funding ups and downs, mostly downs
While some districts have been able to avoid major cuts, many are reducing staff in anticipation of declining local revenue and possible state funding cuts, with summaries here and here. Higher education has cut a number of expenses and is concerned about how enrollment will go this fall. State revenue is down, and federal stimulus funds may be limited help in offsetting that.

Instructional ins and outs
The Brown anniversary underlined the centrality of public education for all, allowing reflection on why good instruction is so important and how Fayette County has (and has not) moved forward on some key concerns.

On reading skills, a great video explained why content knowledge is essential, but a regional report offered problematic advice.

On professional learning communities, the Black Box study and Archimedes offered new leverage, and a running list will provide quick access to all the posts.

And on other issues, posts roamed through preschool strengths, math weaknesses, special education placements, higher education attitudes, and a great poster project linking arts and science.

Best in Class: why the money disappeared

From October 2001 to December 2006, the Student Loan People collected $142.8 million in "special allowance payments under the 9.5 percent floor calculation" from the U.S. Department of Education.

On Friday, the Department's Inspector General issued a report concluding that $88.5 million of that amount should not have been claimed and that at least $9 million should be repaid to the federal government.

Here are bare bones of the story. The Student Loan People had long claimed that a limited number of loans qualified for a very old, very generous version of the federal subsidy. Starting in 2004, they claimed that many more loans qualified. In early 2007, the Department announced that it would require added evidence that the loans were really eligible, and the Student Loan People were (in their own words) "unable to make such assertions and therefore lost all ... payments effective for all quarters ending on or after December 31, 2006." The graph to the left gives the basics of the sudden growth and abrupt decline of that income stream.

Those payments were one of four big losses that hit the Student Loan people, along with the transfer of millions from their reserves to the state's general fund in 2004-05 and 2005-06, federal cuts to other lender subsidies in late 2007, and the credit crisis that began in early 2008.

Seeing all four changes together, I do understand why the Student Loan People made Best in Class commitments and now cannot easily deliver all they promised.

Click here to read the full report from the Inspector General, and here to read past posts on Best in Class, including samples of publications that describing the program as a commitment that students preparing for teaching careers were encouraged to count on for the future.

Digital social studies

Joe Weston became a high school sophomore yesterday at 3:30 and sent me this "analysis" a few minutes ago. I'm pretty sure it counts for geography and civics as well.

Older special education students

In the fall of 2007, close to 4,000 Kentucky young adults between the ages of 18 and 21 received educational services under Part B of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. They made up just under 1 percent of our population aged 18 to 24, and just over 5 percent of residents that age who had not completed high school.

Below, you can see the number of young adults still in school with each type of disability reported in the IDEA child count data. The third column shows Kentucky number as a percent of the national number, worth comparing to Kentucky having an estimated 1.2 percent of the nation's overall population aged 18 to 24.

I know very little about these students, and would especially value comments from readers who know more. What are the best things happening educationally, and what are the toughest challenges they face? What more do we need to be doing?

Don't be like Kentucky!

Kentucky's teacher loan catastrophe has appeared in a third New York Times article. Back story: the Best in Class program said that teachers who went into shortage fields--math, science, and special education--could get 20% of their student loan principal paid off each year, leaving them debt-free after five years' work. Then the Student Loan People, who created the program, announced that they couldn't afford it, leaving teachers who had already borrowed deep in debt.

For this article, a reporting team called other state loan programs to find out how secure their forgiveness offers are, and here's part of what happened:

Some states ignored us or didn’t call back in time. Some were stumped entirely and said the question actually raised Constitutional issues, which left us a bit befuddled (and there was a trained lawyer in our posse). A few insisted that theirs was not a Kentucky situation, so scared were they of being tarred with that state’s taint.

There it is. We're the national model of how not to run an incentive program and how not to treat student borrowers willing to take on important public service.

One flicker of hope in the article shouldn't be missed: "Ken Winters, a Republican state senator there, said he expected the issue of financing for the program to come up in January."

(Earlier posts on this bad story are here.)

Special education placements (and puzzle)

In the chart above, it's clear that Kentucky "mainstreams" students with disabilities more often than the rest of the country. More of our children are in regular classrooms more than 80% of the time. Fewer are there for shorter periods, and fewer are assigned to fully separate classrooms and facilities.

Students with disabilities are entitled to be educated with other children "to the maximum extent appropriate." The puzzle here is why Kentucky decisions on placement are clearly different from what's common elsewhere.

Are other states keeping students out of regular classrooms who could succeed there? Are they refusing to mainstream when doing so is appropriate?

Or is Kentucky is assigning students to regular classrooms that cannot meet their needs? For example, are we avoiding the added costs that might come with other placements, even when that's what would be right for the students in question?

Notes: the graphed data comes from the "Review of Special Education in Kentucky" released by the Office of Education Accountability in December, available here, with hat tip to Melanie Tyner-Wilson.

Opinion piece on loans

Gail Collins at the NYT starts out this way:

There are so many things I don’t understand in this world. Why can’t we do something about North Korea? Why are all the bees dying? How did I miss knowing about “Jon & Kate Plus Eight” until last week? None of these things, however, are nearly as confusing as student loans.

Click here for the rest of her piece, touring the current federal battles over student loans with special mention of Kentucky's Best in Class troubles.

Surprised by the national interest in the Kentucky story? I'm not. Teachers and nurses are being crushed by $100 million in debt they were told would be cancelled. That's genuine news, folks.

Transition index details

Last month, I posted the press release announcing a transition index project that will be shared by the Council for Better Education, the Kentucky Association of School Councils, and the Prichard Committee. I'm pleased to be part of the hands-on work of that project, and we're now ready to share some detail on how we'll calculate and share the index numbers.

Student scores
For 2009, 2010, and 2011 students will continue to be tested in reading, mathematics, science, social studies and on-demand writing. Their work will be identified as novice, apprentice, proficient, or distinguished, and novice and apprentice will each have three different sublevels. That part will be like the 2007 and 2008 assessments.

However, the Department of Education will not combine those scores into index results that sum up a school's performance in each subject and then combine the subjects in a single number that summarizes the school's overall progress.

That's where the transition index work will come in, giving schools, parents, and the public those snapshots of our movement toward proficiency for all students.

School subject scores
To produce an index for each subject, we will use the formula KDE used in years past. That formula produces numbers on a 0-140 scale, based on giving full credit for proficient performance, extra credit for distinguished work, and partial credit for novice and apprentice work. For number lovers, I'll list the weights at the bottom of this post.

Transition index results
The old Academic Index formula will be adjusted so that results are still on a 0-140 scale even though three past tests are no longer used. The elementary school formula gives reading and math the most weight, while the high school version treats those two as equal to science and social studies. Again, the specifics are at the end.

Year-to-year comparisons and 2014 projections
We'll calculate the transition index results for 2007 and 2008 as well as 2009, to allow sound comparisons over time.

To give a sense of who is on track for overall proficiency, we'll look at how much each school's transition index has changed since 2007, and estimate the school's 2014 index if that rate of growth continued for five more years.

Disaggregated results
For separate groups of students, KDE does not publish results for the three different novice levels and the three apprentice levels. We'll do the subject index calculations treating all novices as medium novices and all apprentices as medium apprentices, and then do a transition index using the same formula as for all students.

District results
We'll use the same formulas and share the same projections for each school district, with separate numbers for the elementary, middle, and high school levels.

The reports
From KASC's website, you'll be able to download lists showing all schools, with their 2007 through 2009 results and their 2014 projections, plus separate files showing the disaggregated information. We'll handle district data the same way, and add a summary report describing statewide trends. Once KDE lifts the embargo, we'll complete our work as quickly as possible, and we expect to share everything within two weeks.

Questions?
Please feel free to use the comments section below if you want more details, or e-mail kasc@kasc.net or call KASC at (859) 238-2188.

Those details I promised above
To calculate an index for a single subject, we'll take the percent of students performing at each level, multiply it by the matching weight below, and add up the results:

To combine all the subjects in an overall index, we'll multiply the index for each subject by a weight and add up those results. Those weights, rounded to three decimal places, will be:

Best in Class, national coverage

Today's New York Times reports on the collapse of Kentucky's Best in Class loan forgiveness program for teachers in shortage fields, putting names and faces to the sad story and linking it to troubles in other places.

Do read the whole piece (here). It's painful and important reading.

Don't, however, take lightly the report that Ted Franzeim, head of customer relations for the Student Loan People "added that the group had never told participants that financing for forgiveness was guaranteed."

That is not true.

The program was presented all over the state as an incentive to borrow from Mr. Franzeim's organization. As an example, here's a clip from their executive director's 2002 legislative testimony:

More proof that the Student Loan People described Best in Class as a promise students could depend on is here, here, and here.

Either Best in Class was an honest promise or it was a trick to lure in borrowers. That second option is terrible to think about: dishonest incentives to student borrowers are forbidden by federal law and warrant major enforcement action by the federal Education Department.

I don't think Best in Class was a trick or a lure. I think it was a promise, made when the Student Loan People believed they would be able to afford to keep their word. The dishonest part is happening now, when they claim they made no promises and offered no guarantees.

Graduation improvement (again)

Yes, we’re making progress on getting students to graduation.

The graphs below give me increasing confidence about that. The first compares 1993 fourth grade enrollment to 2001 graduates, 1994 fourth to 2002 graduates, and so on. The others use sixth, eighth, ninth, and tenth grade enrollment the same way.



If you're wondering why ninth grade shows the smallest percentages, it's because the ninth grade enrollment is always the state's largest. That's partly because of transfers from non-public schools, and heavily because more students repeat grade nine than repeat any other year.

Starting from any grade, graduations look better now than they did a few years ago.

(Notes for readers who love the details: The numbers behind the graphs are below. Earlier posts compared students taking the CATS test to students graduating. The up-side of that method is that it’s nearly impossible to over-count tested students. One down-side is that the CATS data won’t let me reach back to 1993, which is why I used enrollment numbers for this particular post.

Do notice the basic logic of the data. In round numbers, 40,000 graduates out of 50,000 students will always divide out to 80 percent. Any claim that Kentucky public schools have a graduation rate much below the 80 percent mark must show fewer than 40,000 diplomas, more than 50,000 enrollment or both. For recent years, that will be a tough claim to sustain without using the bulging, improbably high, ninth-grade numbers as a starting point.)

Art, science, glory!

You’ve got to see these posters! Full-sized, they’re stunning, and I hope the main impact comes through on the small screen.

These posters (and more than a dozen more) come from the “EYE-N-STINE and the ARTS” project developed by Yolantha Harrison-Pace, a Danville artist, dancer, actor, playwright, missionary, and parent leader, as well as my treasured friend.

Photographer Joshua Fuqua works with the Danville system, and Danville students and teachers rode the scateboards and tied them to the core content. The project was supported by Parents and Teachers as Arts Partners, a joint effort of the Prichard Committee and the Kentucky Center for the Arts Center funded by the Lucille Caudill Little Foundation.

I imagine Joe Weston, Diamond Pace and hundreds of their classmates remembering adenosine triphosphate and vertebrate backbones years from now, understanding them better because this gorgeous effort got their attention. The skateboarders themselves, having discussed the concrete connections between what they love and the science that makes it possible, will likely take the learning even deeper.

Yolantha is working on plans to expand the project further. A video component is almost ready. Beyond that, she's thinking about additional science. For myself, I'm daydreaming about how all twenty-seven constitutional amendments might look to a crew of middle school girls.

For Memorial Day

This June 22, 1945, ceremony marked the end of "organized resistance" on Okinawa. In my family, Memorial Day reflection always starts with thought of Billy Harp, my mother's cousin, who died in that place, five days too soon to see that flag go up. Memorial Day is forever about flags rising, rising proudly, rising at a cost we must not forget.

University savings (in billion dollar context)

Ryan Alessi reports on money saved by UK and U of L in recent years:

Kentucky's two largest universities say they've saved a combined $183 million since 2002 through efficiencies, such as cutting back window-washing at the University of Louisville and taking out the phones in University of Kentucky dorm rooms.

That total also includes savings from merging academic programs, the elimination of faculty and staff positions and the altering or slashing of some employee benefits over the last seven years.

UK and U of L have outlined such cost-cutting measures, as well as ways they've tried to generate more revenue, in memos they dispatched to the Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education last week.

The $183 million since 2002 would seem to average out to $30.5 million saved per year over the six fiscal years in question. How big is that in the context of those two institutions?

Context, part 1
For fiscal year 2008, the current Budget of the Commonwealth shows the University of Louisville's revenue as including $186 million from the state general fund, $560 million in restricted funds, and $116 million in federal funds--for a total of $862 million.

For the University of Kentucky, the matching figures include $327 million from the state's general fund, $1,545 million from restricted funds, and $190 million from federal funds--for a total of $2,062 million.

Those figures include the reductions ordered for fiscal year 2008 by the governor. Combined, they add up to $2.9 billion. $30.5 million in savings for that year would be roughly 1.1. percent of revenue.

Context, part 2
For fiscal year 2002, the enacted budget showed the two universities receiving combined revenue of $1.7 billion. Barring changes to that enacted budget that I haven't tracked down yet, their 2008 revenue included a 58 percent increase since 2002.

Context, part 3
CPE's most recent accountability report shows that the two schools were also growing in other ways during the years that revenue was added. From fall 2001 to fall 2007, UK and U of L combined had a 12 percent increase in enrollment, and from the 2001-02 academic year to the 2007-08 academic year, they increased degrees awarded by 6 percent. Increases in research capacity, essential to that part of each university's mission, should also be considered, but I don't have an easy way to quantify that growth element.

High school attainment

The above results show Kentucky as 36th of the fifty states in high school completion.

The last time I did this analysis, Kentucky was 35th with 80%, and South Dakota was 20th with 83%. That's an important reminder that we don't just need to improve our attainment: we need to improve faster than other states to move into the top 20.

These results are also useful in thinking about public school graduation reports and methods. The figures above include GED recipients and non-public diplomas. To me, they suggest yet again that KDE reports of graduation rates of 79 to 84 percent from 2001 to 2006 are likely a bit high, and that other reports of rates well below 80 percent are almost certainly too low.

Funding QuickNotes

Kentucky schools continue to work through the implications of shrinking local and state revenue.

Bardstown Independent expects to avoid job cuts by funding some positions through stimulus funding, but notes those dollars will only be available for two years.

Barren County is budgeting $210 thousand less next year. In addition to preparing for possible state revenue losses, the district is affected by changes in how average daily attendance is calculated. The new student data system (Infinite Campus) tracks students who arrive late or leave early by the minute, lowering the district's ADA by 48 students even though enrollment is up.

Bell County has made operational cuts and protected personnel thus far, but any cut in state funding will make staff losses inescapable, according to superintendent George Thompson.

Boone County will leave vacant positions unfilled as part of preparations for potential state reductions.

Danville Independent now anticipates cutting eight staff positions, only half the number discussed at an earlier board meeting. The district's budget assumes a $667 thousand reduction in revenue, and reflects only 95% of the state SEEK funding shown in the most recent state estimates. Finance director Patsy Clevenger explained that "I think it would be foolhardy to assume that the state is going to be in a strong position next year."

Henderson County will eliminate one or two teaching positions but preserve all-day kindergarten, maintain the district's alternative program, and cover required raises and a $150 thousand dollar increase in required classified staff retirement contributions.

Hopkins County's general fund budget includes $47.8 million in revenue, down 3% from the current $49.4 million. Approved staffing has been reduced by five certified and fifteen classified positions.

Jessamine County is cutting 44 jobs, including 16 teaching positions, saving $700 thousand in school-level costs and $300 thousand in central office expenses in order to be ready for possible state reductions.

Lincoln County will cut $900 thousand and 17 teaching positions for next year.

Mason County expects $1.5 million less in state funding. Cuts have already been made to plans for technology and athletics, and further reductions may be needed.

Murray Independent will avoid staff layoffs and start out with a 9% contingency reserve.

Spencer County has laid off eight or nine employees, but no classroom teachers. Bracing for further reductions, the district has increased its contingency reserve from $700 thousand to $1.4 million.

Webster County expects to be able to find cost reductions to cover an $84,000 shortfall remaining after federal stimulus funds for Title I and special education.

PLCs inside the Black Box

Remember Inside the Black Box?

Steve Clements and Patty Kannapel produced a runaway hit in their 2003 study of high performing, high poverty schools.

The features that distinguished the eight impressive schools were a near-perfect match for the features of professional learning communities. Straight from the executive summary, here they are:

High expectations that were communicated in concrete ways. Principals held high expectations for faculty and staff, who held high expectations for themselves and the students. There was a strong belief that all students could succeed academically and that faculty and staff were capable of making this happen.

Relationships. The caring, nurturing atmosphere in each of the schools related closely to high expectations. Respectful relationships were observed among adults, between adults and students, and among students.

Academic, instructional focus. All eight schools had a strong focus on academics, instruction, and student learning.

Student assessment. All of the schools paid close attention to their performance on state assessments, but the results from the state test were just a starting point. Each school had a system in place to regularly assess the progress of individual students and to plan or change instruction to meet the studentsʼ needs.

Leadership and decision-making. Leadership styles varied greatly at the schools, but all shared a collaborative decision-making process. None of the schools had an authoritarian or dictatorial leader, and faculty and staff were involved in making most key decisions.

Faculty work ethic and morale. The faculty and staff worked very hard to meet their studentsʼ needs, regularly analyzing data on individual students and planning appropriate instruction or interventions. They helped families and students find transportation, clothing, health care, and other services, and they worked after school and on weekends to provide help with tutoring, portfolios, assessment preparation, or parent programs. They did this work with enthusiasm and dedication; there were no reports of overload or teacher burnout.

Teacher recruitment, hiring, and assignment. A contributing factor to the high morale and overall success of the schools was the careful and intentional manner in which teachers were recruited, hired, and assigned.

The literature tells us quite clearly how great learning settings work. The work is figuring out how many more schools, all schools, can work at this high level for their students.

Notes: Inside the Black Box can be downloaded here, and earlier posts on PLCs can be found here. And my congratulations to Steve and Markie Clements on Lee and Natalie's beautiful wedding.

PLC roundup (expect updates to this one)

Here's a summary of my posts to date on the concept of professional learning communities.

Professional learning communities kicked off the discussion, explaining the blend of professional development, school culture, planning and leadership that make up the PLC concept. (4/22/09)

PLCs: more on what they take noted argued that educators' collaborative work, so distinctive in learning communities, is what energizes them to do deep, effective work with students. (4/23/09)

Common assessments (SISI, PLC's) noted an EdTrust study of high schools with strong records of raising student achievement--a study that illustrated the core principles that make PLCs effective. (4/28/09)

Archimedes, assessment, and learning communities suggested that the assessment "lever" only works if it rests on something like a PLC "fulcrum." (5/11/09)

Report and dissent: Teaching quality and NGA shared concern that the National Governors Association did not list PLC practices as a main strategy for strengthening our education workforce. (5/13/09)

The Strategies counted PLCs as part of what's need to complete the high hopes launched by Brown v. Board. (May 16, 2009)

PLCs inside the black box goes back to the findings in the great Clements & Kannapel report and notes how their high performing, high poverty schools embodied PLC traits. (5/21/09)

Top systems, learning communities, and SB 1 standards notes PLC evidence built into How the world's best-performing school systems come out on top, the powerful 2007 report from McKinsey & Company. (6/14/09)

Blogger side note: this post is also the start of an experiment with blog organization. While keeping the main list of categories very short, I want a way for readers to see the sequence on topics that come up regularly. Also, when I blog on a recurring topic like this, I want a single to connect the new post to the related earlier ones. My plan is to update this post as I add thoughts about the PLC concept, so that it offers one-stop access to the whole discussion. I hope it's helpful!

ACT, CPE, and bit of Frank Baum

This story takes a little telling.

In November 2004, the Council for Postsecondary Education required all public universities and KCTCS schools to place students with an ACT English score of 18 in a credit-bearing writing course, with an ACT mathematics score of 19 in guaranteeing a credit-bearing math assignment.

In November 2007, CPE amended its admissions regulation to specify that:

• Students would need an ACT reading score of 21 as well as the 18 in English and the 19 in mathematics.
• Students scoring below those levels would have to take either a non-credit developmental course or a credit-bearing course with "supplementary academic support, such as extra class sessions, additional labs, tutoring, and increased monitoring of students, beyond that usually associated with an entry-level course."
• Schools would have to provide those courses in a student's first semester.
• The new rules would go into effect in the fall of 2009.

Only, in January 2009, CPE voted to amend that regulation again to say that:

• Students would only need a reading score of 20.
• Students scoring below the standards could spread their special course work over two semesters.
• The requirement for that coursework would go into effect in the fall of 2010.

And in May 2009 (tomorrow, in fact), President Bob King will present his regular report to the Council, including an update on Senate Bill 1 work that says the next step will be:

to review the current systemwide public postsecondary placement policy in English and mathematics and, working with institutional representatives and KDE, to determine whether revisions are needed in those content standards.

That raises the possibility that by the time the new placement policy goes into effect, every number, date, and timeline will have been replaced at least once, like the memorable tin woodsman Dorothy met on her way to visit the Wizard of Oz.

Is CPE heartless, to be changing the rules so often? Probably not.

Instead, the November 2007 decision may have been made without enough active discussion, meaning that too few brains contributed to figuring out what would be needed to make the changes work.

If so, I'm glad that CPE has the courage to give each element a new round of careful attention.