Wednesday, March 11, 2009

State revenue (scary stuff after midnight)

The Office of State Budget Director reported today that February’s General Fund receipts fell 9.3 percent compared to February of last year, a decrease of $54.3 million.... The November 2008 revised revenue forecast by the Commonwealth’s Consensus Revenue Forecasting Group called for a 2.7 percent decline for the entire fiscal year. To meet the revenue estimate, receipts must decline 7.6 percent over the last four months of the fiscal year.
That's from the official OSBD report here. The last sentence might be clearer if it said "If March through June are down 7.6 percent or more, we will not meet the revised consensus forecast, and we'll have to make bigger cuts than the Governor has already ordered" or "If March-June look like February, painful cuts are on the way." Even if the federal stimulus protects public education, health and safety could be badly damaged.

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