Revenue watch

State Budget Director Mary Lassiter announced today Kentucky’s General Fund receipts for July, the first month of Fiscal Year 2010 (FY10), totaled $620.5 million, a 4.0 percent decline compared to July 2008 receipts.

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The revised consensus General Fund revenue estimate for FY10 (adjusted for the impact of legislation from the 2009 Regular and Special Sessions of the General Assembly) calls for revenue to fall 1.5 percent compared to FY09 actual receipts. Based on July’s results, General Fund revenues can fall 1.3 percent for the remainder of the fiscal year and still meet the official estimate.

That's from the newest monthly report on state revenue. In that statement, the key thing is that the shrinking revenue is not a surprise. It roughly matches the estimates that went into the budget. It doesn't, by itself, suggest that we'll need yet another round of budget cuts.

Instead, if the next several months show smaller losses compared to late 2008, and then the months after that start to show growth compared to early 2009, we'll be on track to match the estimates for the year as a whole.