How big is the real hole in the state budget, and the problem state leaders really have to solve? Senator Williams is right that the hole is less than the $1 billion drop in revenue, but I think it's still pretty large.
Here are the very round numbers I'm thinking about:
- $1 billion missing from revenue assumed in 2008.
- +$200 million added in new costs from health benefits and other troubles.
- -$400 million from the stimulus fiscal stabilization.
- -$300 million in revenue and savings that will repeat from the 2009 legislature's work.
- $500 million as the real hole that requires further action.
I had to add some assumptions there. Kentucky will receive $650 million in stabilization money for two years, and that's spending more than half of it in the first of those years. The state plugged a $456 million hole in this year's budget, and that's assuming that about two thirds of those efforts will work again. And the $200 million in new costs rounds off a
Page One report that they've sourced to Senator Williams' staff.
Taking $500 million out of general fund spending, if that's what's ahead, will involve serious losses in services to current Kentuckians and investment in future strength.
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