Public and nonpublic graduates and nongraduates, when combined, should add up to a credible estimate of that year's eighteen-year-olds. Starting today, I plan to use pie charts to push that point. On finding fresh counts or estimates of public graduates and nongraduates, I'll combine them in a single graph with total eighteen-year-olds and private-school and home-school figures. All numbers will be rounded just enough for easier consumption.
My first pie comes from Education Week's 2009 Dropout Counts report, being released this morning, which estimates Kentucky will have 41,556 public school graduates and 16,193 public school nongraduates in 2008-09. Here's the resulting pie:
That tiny nonpublic piece isn't one I'd want to serve to company. The last estimate I saw had close to 3,800 private school graduates, and I saw no sign that home-schoolers or nongraduates were included. I think EdWeek included far too many public nongraduates in its recipe.
EdWeek's national estimates offers 2,889,430 graduates and 1,286,915 nongraduates, which I'm trying to match to a Census count of roughly 4,344,000 reaching age 18 at the right time. Again, the nonpublic slice seems highly unlikely: the most current private-only, graduates-only number I can find is over 300,000.
Finally, here's my own 2007-08 pie, using ingredients from the Department's most recent nonacademic briefing. This one leaves a credible helping for the nonpublic sector.
Why am I spending all this time in a hot kitchen? I'm doing it because I think most approaches to public school graduation rates make the same big mistake. Specifically, they assume that many students who spend two years in ninth-grade can across the stage with their first freshman class and with their second freshman class, collecting diplomas both times.
Those approaches either result in implausibly low nonpublic school numbers or implausibly high numbers old enough to graduate. The pies are my way of pointing out which numbers come out of the oven making sense, and which ones seem, even on brief inspection, to be half-baked.
Update: below is the pie I originally included above. It uses the EdWeek 2009 graduation estimate and the Census Bureau's estimate of 2008 17-year-olds. I regret the error. The pie now shown above is the one I should have displayed originally. I apologize for the error.